By Catherine J. Teves
MANILA, Sept. 7 (PNA) –Water reserve at Angat Dam was projected to dip towards a historic low by mid-2016 due to the worsening El Nino phenomenon, posing a potential Php 2.21-billion palay production loss next cropping season in the facility’s service area.
And the resumption of Angat’s water supply for palay production there then is still unlikely as State weather agency Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) expects below-normal to way below-normal rainfall in the dam’s area and watershed until early 2016.
Angat Dam, a concrete water reservoir embankment located in Barangay San Lorenzo, Norzagaray, Bulacan supplies about 97 percent of raw water requirements for Metro Manila, through the facilities of the Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System (MWSS) and irrigates about 26,000 hectares of farmland in the provinces of Bulacan and Pampanga.
“There’ll be more dry days in most parts of the country,” noted PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Officer-in-charge Anthony Lucero, citing the agency’s latest outlook ending February next year.
For Bulacan province where Angat is, the outlook shows dry conditions this September worsening to drought by 2015’s end until February.
Government’s lead water agency National Water Resources Board (NWRB) projects water level in Angat to dip anew beginning this month until it reaches the 111.05 meters elevation by June 30 next year.
Data indicate such elevation is lower than Angat’s record 157.56 meters water level on July 18, 2010.
“That water level in 2010 – an El Nino year – is the lowest in Angat’s history so far,” said PAGASA hydrologist Elmer Caringal.
NWRB’s projection shows possible zero Angat water supply for irrigation during 2015’s remaining months until June next year.
Previous NWRB projection show Angat’s water level is also sinking by mid-2016 to around 155 meters before starting to rise and eventually surpass the 180 meters minimum operating level (MOL) there.
Under government’s protocol, release of irrigation water from Angat Dam must stop if water level there reaches the MOL.
Such protocol aims ensuring availability of Angat reserve for Metro Manila.
“With the dim water prospect in Angat, planting palay is unlikely in this dam’s entire service area next cropping season from November 2015 to April 2016,” said Romeo Lopez, Operations Department Manager of National Irrigation Administration (NIA).
He noted Angat’s 26,000-hectare service area in Bulacan and Pampanga provinces can yield during the November-April period about five tons of palay per hectare or a total of 130,000 metric tons.
National Food Authority buys palay from farmers there at Php 17 per kilogram, he said.
“If those farmers won’t be able to grow palay next cropping season, however, it’ll mean production loss totaling some Php 2.21 billion,” he noted.
Such loss will affect about 21,667 farmer-beneficiaries in the area, he said.
Earlier, Lucero said data indicated El Nino would likely peak during 2015’s last quarter.
El Nino could last until May or June next year, he said.
PAGASA is likewise not discounting the possibility that the “strong” El Nino in the tropical Pacific could further intensify to a degree exceeding its 1997-1998 counterpart, which is the strongest on record so far.
As a precaution against El Nino, government earlier stopped supplying Angat water for irrigation.
Government hasn’t resumed such supply even if Angat’s water level rose due to rains last month, and was above the MOL at 186.83 meters as of 6 a.m. Monday (Sept. 7).
“Angat’s water level is still low and El Nino’s in progress,” said NWRB Deputy Executive Director Jorge Estioko.
PAGASA forecast rainfall over Angat Dam area at nearly 63 percent of normal rainfall there this November.
That forecast rainfall plunged to only 16 percent of normal rainfall in December and to an even lesser 6.6 percent in January next year before rising to almost 14 percent the month after – still in the red, however.
Forecast for Angat’s watershed echoed the same trend with expected rainfall there reaching 66.2 percent of normal rainfall this November, then declining to 21.1 percent in December and 5.0 percent in January then increasing in February to 19.4 percent which is also way below normal, PAGASA data further show.
To help Angat farmers, Lopez said NIA aimed at mobilizing up to 70 percent of them as workers for this agency’s Php 100 million Angat-Maasim River Irrigation System project.
NIA targets implementing the project for about six months from this year, he noted.
Among the project’s activities include constructing concrete lining for earth canals and desilting these passages, he said.
He also said that NIA planned to also coordinate with Department of Social Welfare and Development regarding possible additional livelihood assistance and other work substitution options for the farmers, including those who won’t be mobilized for the project. (PNA)