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Q3 ’14 business sentiment remains upbeat –BSP survey

Posted on August 29, 2014

By Joann Santiago

MANILA, Aug. 29 (PNA) — Business confidence in the Philippines in the third quarter of 2014 remains positive despite additional concerns among the business sector.

The result of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) business expectation survey (BES) for the third quarter of the year showed that the index slipped to 34.4 percent from quarter-ago’s 50.7 percent.

This sentiment is similar to that of the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, New Zealand, Singapore and Hong Kong, BSP Department of Economic Statistics Director Rosabel Guerrero said in a media briefing Friday.

Aside from the usual reasons for the third quarter survey, like the rainy season and lower consumer spending due to expected increase in education and tax payments, respondents cited the port congestion caused by the expanded truck ban in the City of Manila and political noises due to the Priority Development Assistance Fund (PDAF) and the Disbursement Acceleration Program (DAP) as additional cause of concerns.

However, BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo, during the same briefing, said this is not a cause of concern because the government is doing its best to address the issue on port congestion.

He explained that the congestion issue “is a very serious problem” because it involves the supply chain.

“But we have not seen the significant effect yet,” he said.

The central bank official said the congestion of container vans “would result to greater buildup of inflationary pressure,” thus, monetary officials continue to monitor the situation.

Last July, inflation rose to nearly three-year high of 4.9 percent, near the upper end of the government’s 3.0 to 5.00 percent target for the year.

Average for the seven-month period, on the other hand, remained within target at 4.3 percent.

To date, the BSP’s average inflation forecast for this year is at 4.33 percent.

Meanwhile, businessmen expect the peso-US dollar rate, inflation rate, interest rate to go up in the remaining months of the year.

Guinigundo maintained that monetary officials are on the lookout for possible secondary effects on the rise in inflation but stressed that “while supply-side factors continue to pose upside risks to the inflation outlook, we don’t see strong signs emerging at this point.” (PNA)

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